Predicting deleterious nsSNPs: an analysis of sequence and structural attributes

BACKGROUND: There has been an explosion in the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within public databases. In this study we focused on non-synonymous protein coding single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs), some associated with disease and others which are thought to be neutral. We describe the distribution of both types of nsSNPs using structural and sequence based features and assess the relative value of these attributes as predictors of function using machine learning methods. We also address the common problem of balance within machine learning methods and show the effect of imbalance on nsSNP function prediction. We show that nsSNP function prediction can be significantly improved by 100% undersampling of the majority class. The learnt rules were then applied to make predictions of function on all nsSNPs within Ensembl. RESULTS: The measure of prediction success is greatly affected by the level of imbalance in the training dataset. We found the balanced dataset that included all attributes produced the best prediction. The performance as measured by the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) varied between 0.49 and 0.25 depending on the imbalance. As previously observed, the degree of sequence conservation at the nsSNP position is the single most useful attribute. In addition to conservation, structural predictions made using a balanced dataset can be of value. CONCLUSION: The predictions for all nsSNPs within Ensembl, based on a balanced dataset using all attributes, are available as a DAS annotation. Instructions for adding the track to Ensembl are a

Women with diabetes are at increased relative risk of heart failure compared to men: Insights from UK Biobank

Aims: To investigate the effect of diabetes on mortality and incident heart failure (HF) according to sex, in the low risk population of UK Biobank. To evaluate potential contributing factors for any differences seen in HF end-point. Methods: The entire UK Biobank study population were included. Participants that withdrew consent or were diagnosed with diabetes after enrolment were excluded from the study. Univariate and multivariate cox regression models were used to assess endpoints of mortality and incident HF, with median follow-up periods of 9 years and 8 years respectively. Results: A total of 493,167 participants were included, hereof 22,685 with diabetes (4.6%). Two thousand four hundred fifty four died and 1,223 were diagnosed or admitted with HF during the follow up periods of 9 and 8 years respectively. Overall, the mortality and HF risk were almost doubled in those with diabetes compared to those without diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.9 for both mortality and heart failure) in the UK Biobank population. Women with diabetes (both types) experience a 22% increased risk of HF compared to men (HR of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.5) vs. 1.8 (1.7-2.0) respectively). Women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) were associated with 88% increased risk of HF compared to men (HR 4.7 (3.6-6.2) vs. 2.5 (2.0-3.0) respectively), while the risk of HF for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) was 17% higher in women compared to men (2.0 (1.7-2.3) vs. 1.7 (1.6-1.9) respectively). The increased risk of HF in women was independent of confounding factors. The findings were similar in a model with all-cause mortality as a competing risk. This interaction between sex, diabetes and outcome of HF is much more prominent for T1DM (p = 0.0001) than T2DM (p = 0.1). Conclusion: Women with diabetes, particularly those with T1DM, experience a greater increase in risk of heart failure compared to men with diabetes, which cannot be explained by the increased prevalence of cardiac risk factors in this cohort

Premature atrial and ventricular contractions detected on wearable-format electrocardiograms and prediction of cardiovascular events

AIMS: Wearable devices are transforming the electrocardiogram (ECG) into a ubiquitous medical test. This study assesses the association between premature ventricular and atrial contractions (PVCs and PACs) detected on wearable-format ECGs (15 s single lead) and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals without cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Premature atrial contractions and PVCs were identified in 15 s single-lead ECGs from N = 54 016 UK Biobank participants (median age, interquartile range, age 58, 50-63 years, 54% female). Cox regression models adjusted for traditional risk factors were used to determine associations with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (LTVAs), and mortality over a period of 11.5 (11.4-11.7) years. The strongest associations were found between PVCs (prevalence 2.2%) and HF (hazard ratio, HR, 95% confidence interval = 2.09, 1.58-2.78) and between PACs (prevalence 1.9%) and AF (HR = 2.52, 2.11-3.01), with shorter prematurity further increasing risk. Premature ventricular contractions and PACs were also associated with LTVA (P < 0.05). Associations with MI, stroke, and mortality were significant only in unadjusted models. In a separate UK Biobank sub-study sample [UKB-2, N = 29,324, age 64, 58-60 years, 54% female, follow-up 3.5 (2.6-4.8) years] used for independent validation, after adjusting for risk factors, PACs were associated with AF (HR = 1.80, 1.12-2.89) and PVCs with HF (HR = 2.32, 1.28-4.22). CONCLUSION: In middle-aged individuals without CVD, premature contractions identified in 15 s single-lead ECGs are strongly associated with an increased risk of AF and HF. These data warrant further investigation to assess the role of wearable ECGs for early cardiovascular risk stratification

Prognostic Significance of Different Ventricular Ectopic Burdens During Submaximal Exercise in Asymptomatic UK Biobank Subjects

BACKGROUND: The consequences of exercise-induced premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) in asymptomatic individuals remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the association between PVC burdens during submaximal exercise and major adverse cardiovascular events (MI/HF/LTVA: myocardial infarction [MI], heart failure [HF], and life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia [LTVA]), and all-cause mortality. Additional end points were MI, LTVA, HF, and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS: A neural network was developed to count PVCs from ECGs recorded during exercise (6 minutes) and recovery (1 minute) in 48 315 asymptomatic participants from UK Biobank. Associations were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Explorative studies were conducted in subgroups with cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging data (n=6290) and NT-proBNP (N-terminal Pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels (n=4607) to examine whether PVC burden was associated with subclinical cardiomyopathy. RESULTS: Mean age was 56.8±8.2 years; 51.1% of the participants were female; and median follow-up was 12.6 years. Low PVC counts during exercise and recovery were both associated with MI/HF/LTVA risk, independently of clinical factors: adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.2 (1-5 exercise PVCs, P20 exercise PVCs, P5 recovery PVCs, P20 exercise PVCs, P5 recovery PVCs, P<0.001). Complex PVC rhythms were associated with higher risk compared with PVC count alone. PVCs were also associated with incident HF, LTVA, and cardiovascular mortality, but not MI. In the explorative studies, high PVC burden was associated with larger left ventricular volumes, lower ejection fraction, and higher levels of NT-proBNP compared with participants without PVCs. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of middle-aged and older adults, PVC count during submaximal exercise and recovery were both associated with MI/HF/LTVA, all-cause mortality, HF, LTVAs, and cardiovascular mortality, independent of clinical and exercise test factors, indicating an incremental increase in risk as PVC count rises. Complex PVC rhythms were associated with higher risk compared with PVC count alone. Underlying mechanisms may include the presence of subclinical cardiomyopathy

Long-term association of ultra-short heart rate variability with cardiovascular events

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a cardiac autonomic marker with predictive value in cardiac patients. Ultra-short HRV (usHRV) can be measured at scale using standard and wearable ECGs, but its association with cardiovascular events in the general population is undetermined. We aimed to validate usHRV measured using ≤ 15-s ECGs (using RMSSD, SDSD and PHF indices) and investigate its association with atrial fibrillation, major adverse cardiac events, stroke and mortality in individuals without cardiovascular disease. In the National Survey for Health and Development (n = 1337 participants), agreement between 15-s and 6-min HRV, assessed with correlation analysis and Bland-Altman plots, was very good for RMSSD and SDSD and good for PHF. In the UK Biobank (n = 51,628 participants, 64% male, median age 58), after a median follow-up of 11.5 (11.4-11.7) years, incidence of outcomes ranged between 1.7% and 4.3%. Non-linear Cox regression analysis showed that reduced usHRV from 15-, 10- and 5-s ECGs was associated with all outcomes. Individuals with low usHRV (< 20th percentile) had hazard ratios for outcomes between 1.16 and 1.29, p < 0.05, with respect to the reference group. In conclusion, usHRV from ≤ 15-s ECGs correlates with standard short-term HRV and predicts increased risk of cardiovascular events in a large population-representative cohort

Predicting left ventricular hypertrophy from the 12-lead electrocardiogram in the UK Biobank imaging study using machine learning

Aims: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is an established, independent predictor of cardiovascular disease. Indices derived from the electrocardiogram (ECG) have been used to infer the presence of LVH with limited sensitivity. This study aimed to classify LVH defined by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging using the 12-lead ECG for cost-effective patient stratification. Methods and results: We extracted ECG biomarkers with a known physiological association with LVH from the 12-lead ECG of 37 534 participants in the UK Biobank imaging study. Classification models integrating ECG biomarkers and clinical variables were built using logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The dataset was split into 80% training and 20% test sets for performance evaluation. Ten-fold cross validation was applied with further validation testing performed by separating data based on UK Biobank imaging centres. QRS amplitude and blood pressure (P &amp;lt; 0.001) were the features most strongly associated with LVH. Classification with logistic regression had an accuracy of 81% [sensitivity 70%, specificity 81%, Area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) 0.86], SVM 81% accuracy (sensitivity 72%, specificity 81%, AUC 0.85) and RF 72% accuracy (sensitivity 74%, specificity 72%, AUC 0.83). ECG biomarkers enhanced model performance of all classifiers, compared to using clinical variables alone. Validation testing by UK Biobank imaging centres demonstrated robustness of our models. Conclusion: A combination of ECG biomarkers and clinical variables were able to predict LVH defined by CMR. Our findings provide support for the ECG as an inexpensive screening tool to risk stratify patients with LVH as a prelude to advanced imaging

State of the Art Review on Genetics and Precision Medicine in Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterised by ventricular arrhythmia and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Numerous genetic determinants and phenotypic manifestations have been discovered in ACM, posing a significant clinical challenge. Further to this, wider evaluation of family members has revealed incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity in ACM, suggesting a complex genotype-phenotype relationship. This review details the genetic basis of ACM with specific genotype-phenotype associations, providing the reader with a nuanced perspective of this condition; whilst also proposing a future roadmap to delivering precision medicine-based management in ACM

Common Polymorphisms at the <i>CYP17A1 </i>Locus Associate With Steroid Phenotype:Support for Blood Pressure Genome-Wide Association Study Signals at This Locus

Genome-wide association studies implicate the CYP17A1 gene in human blood pressure regulation although the causative polymorphisms are as yet unknown. We sought to identify common polymorphisms likely to explain this association. We sequenced the CYP17A1 locus in 60 normotensive individuals and observed 24 previously identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms with minor allele frequency &gt;0.05. From these, we selected, for further studies, 7 polymorphisms located ≤2 kb upstream of the CYP17A1 transcription start site. In vitro reporter gene assays identified 3 of these (rs138009835, rs2150927, and rs2486758) as having significant functional effects. We then analyzed the association between the 7 polymorphisms and the urinary steroid metabolites in a hypertensive cohort (n=232). Significant associations included that of rs138009835 with aldosterone metabolite excretion; rs2150927 associated with the ratio of tetrahydrodeoxycorticosterone to tetrahydrodeoxycortisol, which we used as an index of 17α-hydroxylation. Linkage analysis showed rs138009835 to be the only 1 of the 7 polymorphisms in strong linkage disequilibrium with the blood pressure–associated polymorphisms identified in the previous studies. In conclusion, we have identified, characterized, and investigated common polymorphisms at the CYP17A1 locus that have functional effects on gene transcription in vitro and associate with corticosteroid phenotype in vivo. Of these, rs138009835—which we associate with changes in aldosterone level—is in strong linkage disequilibrium with polymorphisms linked by genome-wide association studies to blood pressure regulation. This finding clearly has implications for the development of high blood pressure in a large proportion of the population and justifies further investigation of rs138009835 and its effects

Automated quality-controlled cardiovascular magnetic resonance pericardial fat quantification using a convolutional neural network in the UK Biobank

Background: Pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) may represent a novel risk marker for cardiovascular disease. However, absence of rapid radiation-free PAT quantification methods has precluded its examination in large cohorts.Objectives: We developed a fully automated quality-controlled tool for cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) PAT quantification in the UK Biobank (UKB).Methods: Image analysis comprised contouring an en-bloc PAT area on four-chamber cine images. We created a ground truth manual analysis dataset randomly split into training and test sets. We built a neural network for automated segmentation using a Multi-residual U-net architecture with incorporation of permanently active dropout layers to facilitate quality control of the model's output using Monte Carlo sampling. We developed an in-built quality control feature, which presents predicted Dice scores. We evaluated model performance against the test set (n = 87), the whole UKB Imaging cohort (n = 45,519), and an external dataset (n = 103). In an independent dataset, we compared automated CMR and cardiac computed tomography (CCT) PAT quantification. Finally, we tested association of CMR PAT with diabetes in the UKB (n = 42,928).Results: Agreement between automated and manual segmentations in the test set was almost identical to inter-observer variability (mean Dice score = 0.8). The quality control method predicted individual Dice scores with Pearson r = 0.75. Model performance remained high in the whole UKB Imaging cohort and in the external dataset, with medium–good quality segmentation in 94.3% (mean Dice score = 0.77) and 94.4% (mean Dice score = 0.78), respectively. There was high correlation between CMR and CCT PAT measures (Pearson r = 0.72, p-value 5.3 ×10−18). Larger CMR PAT area was associated with significantly greater odds of diabetes independent of age, sex, and body mass index.Conclusions: We present a novel fully automated method for CMR PAT quantification with good model performance on independent and external datasets, high correlation with reference standard CCT PAT measurement, and expected clinical associations with diabetes.<br/